Asia’s Power in the World

Some weeks ago I wrote about the rising economic progress and power of Asia and shared a McKinsey podcast on the subject. They have now come out with a longer and more detailed analysis that highlights the massive scale and implications of Asia’s rise.

Mckinsey Report – Asia’s Future Is Now

Growth on such a scale is inevitably messy, inconsistent and somewhat chaotic.  There will be wild gyrations up and down. There will also be differences in the extent to which different countries or geographical areas participate in the growth. However, nobody should mistake the overall direction. It’s often been said that when looking at major and significant changes, people overestimate their implications in the short term and underestimate the effects in the long term.

It sometimes seems odd to me, having now lived in Asia for twenty years, when people in the West look purely at localised factors in their own countries to explain and understand what’s happened to them over the last 20-30 years. Mid-level incomes have stagnated, though the economies of those countries didn’t really perform too bad (as reflected in stock market performances). It’s become a favourite practice of more liberal politicians in the west to bang the drum about exploitation and the exporting of McJobs to Asia. However, this is to ignore the fact that these trends have lifted millions out of poverty and fuelled the rise of Asia which shows no sign of slowing.

Countries in Asia haven’t all benefited equally and the future offers challenges for some. There are all sorts of factors at work, not least the political, cultural and social stability of the country. Also, it matters from what sort of a base the country was building. Bangladesh, for example, has made progress, but was starting from a very low base.

The report highlights the growing trend of intra-Asian trade. However, Asia is certainly not immune to what happens in the rest of the world. If, as many suspect, there is a recession on the horizon in the west, the Asian economies will feel the effects acutely, especially as their people have now become used to rapid progress and expectations are high.

There’s also another important factor that is of particular relevance for those engaged in any aspects of education, summed up in the following paragraph from the report:

“Nevertheless, infrastructure, workforce skills, and productivity will be critical to competitiveness in the decade ahead. Low-cost labor alone will not be enough. All industry value chains now rely more heavily on R&D and innovation—and the share of value generated by the actual production of goods is declining.³ These shifts, combined with a wave of new manufacturing and logistics technologies mean that countries across Asia will need to alter their investment priorities and develop new types of skills to compete in a more knowledge-intensive trade landscape.”

The types and levels of skills required for the future will be of a higher and more complex nature than many required for earlier progress. Education will need to prepare more people with creativity and the collaboration skills to take on this R & D and innovation. The needs will be for more of the twenty first century skills that experts in western countries have been looking for. This cannot be only the product of ‘elite’ education through private sector schools and colleges, but needs to reach far more people at all levels of the society.  There is a need for way more training and development for educators, but also to continue to work on the motivation levels, rewards and status and skill levels across the educational spectrum.

For those who get these things right the rewards could be substantial. For those who don’t with continually growing populations of expectant people eager for access to a better life, the downside could be very uncomfortable. In Asian governments today there might be few people with a more important role to play than those charged with leading education ministries.

 

 

Asia is the Future

McKinsey’s have shared a very good 2-part video that helps understanding of why Asia’s future is so strong and will lead the world.

Dr Parag Khanna of FutureMap highlights many of the factors that made me so convinced 20 years ago that I had made the right move coming East. I still love my home country, but struggle to see myself ever living there again, exactly because of the issues highlighted here.

McKinsey Insights – Why the Future is Asian

One key takeaway for me from these two videos is that the education offered by schools (and especially International Schools) in Asia shouldn’t simply mimic or replicate western school models (especially as so many of them are broken models). We need schools that tap in to the best of modern knowledge in areas like neurology, learning and understanding of what young people need to excel in the future. It’s vital that the schools reflect and project ‘Asian-ness’, are modern and open minded in their educational approaches and pay attention to the issues of scale and equity in order to ensure that the strong, powerful future has a workforce that is flexible, creative, innovative and bold.

If there are two elements that Khanna doesn’t highlight in these videos (maybe more so in his book which i’m yet to read) that I would consider mark out Asianness today it’s high personal aspiration and work ethic. Ironically, a strong work ethic combined with aspiration was a key constituent in the rise of the West. As Asians have come to see the fruits of affluence enjoyed in the West, these attributes have become the hallmark of Asians. The Western pessimism highlighted by Khanna is reflected in the shifting attitudes to personal aspiration and effort.

I feel honoured all the time I get the right to be a part of this exciting future.

Some deeper insights from Parag Khanna: